Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is the latest frightening event that seems to indicate that we are entering a very dark period. The US is no longer willing or able to be the world’s policeman. China’s economic importance has caused the world to sit idly by while more than 1 million Uyghurs are being held by the Chinese government in what can only be called concentration camps. Authoritarianism from the Right has been on the rise all over the world. While it does look bad, the reaction of the world to the invasion and the Ukrainians heroic determination to fight for their country make me think we are at a turning point.
The authoritarian far-right has been ascendant for almost a decade now. Putin, who has aided far-right politicians throughout the world by giving them money and by using his vast network of hackers and troll farms to spread disinformation to help their election campaigns, is the unquestioned leader of this movement. Weasels like Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson have celebrated Putin’s machismo (I would guess they are overcompensating for their own shortcomings) while pretty much every far-right politician, from Trump to Bolsonaro to Farage to Orban, has heaped praise on Putin and fallen all over themselves to curry his favor. The fact that Putin has always been a gangster and mass murderer should tell you everything you need to know about this crowd.
Putin has badly miscalculated in launching this invasion. He thought the Ukrainians would lie down in front of his troops; instead, resistance is fierce and his vaunted army looks pathetic and inept. He thought he would be lionized in Russia for restoring their empire; instead, there have been antiwar rallies by courageous Russian citizens. He thought the West would toss out a few ineffective sanctions and go back to their daily lives; instead, Putin’s aggression has united most of the world against him and the sanctions already appear to be having some effect.
The determination shown by the Ukrainian people in fighting for real freedom and democracy should show all those people who have lost faith in these notions that they were wrong. (If you’re one of those that thinks not being able to go to a restaurant because you were too scared to be vaccinated is an outrage, well, I’m sure there are now millions of Ukrainians who could quickly set you straight.) This incredibly brave resistance demands our unflinching support and I don't believe what has been done so far is enough. We should also do the following:
- Fully arm the Ukrainians. We should be sending them whatever conventional weapons we can. In fact, we had weeks to send them weapons and failed to do so for reasons that never made a lick of sense. We need to make up for this stupid mistake.
- Seize, don’t freeze. Assets that are identified (no easy task) as belonging to Putin and his gangster oligarchs need to be confiscated, not frozen, which is what has been done up to now. These assets are the fruits of a vast criminal enterprise. Want proof? Putin’s wealth is pegged to be at least 100 billion USD yet his official salary is $140K a year. I know math is hard, but it ain’t that hard.
- Drive the Russian ruble into the ground. Western governments should pool together a few billion to short the crap out of the Russian currency. Central banks can simultaneously take steps to prevent Russia from propping up the ruble. If the ruble craters, capital will flee, inflation will mushroom and unrest will grow exponentially. Yes, the average Russian will suffer from this situation and this is unfortunate. But nothing is more likely to bring regime change than economic hardship. (As I write this, it already may be happening; the ruble is down 40 percent.)
- Re-invite Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Russia absolutely doesn’t want the two countries in NATO. If one of Putin’s goals in invading Ukraine was to prevent that country from joining NATO, bringing in Finland and Sweden, two historical Russian enemies, will turn this invasion into even more of a political disaster for Putin.
- Prepare an international indictment for Putin and others in his government for crimes against humanity. This should have been done long ago, based on his actions in Chechnya alone. Putin needs to know he can never again leave Russia without finding himself in handcuffs, or more happily, on the end of a rope.
This is a chance to neuter Putin and all the rest of the far-right lunatics. If Putin fails in Ukraine, their whole edifice falls into disrepute. Think of what they stand for and believe in: a hatred of democracy and liberal institutions for giving too many rights to underserving groups–women, gays, ethnic minorities, etc; admiration for strong male leaders who will use power and violence to resolve disputes; an ethnocentric (often with a religious component) nationalism, in which a chosen group is deemed to be the real citizenry while others are excluded and exploited; a desire to ‘turn back the clock’ to an imagined time of greatness and virtue, as opposed to the so-called weakness and decadence of today’s societies.
All of this is fully on display with Putin’s attempt to destroy Ukraine as an independent country. He cannot abide to have a successful westernized democracy on his doorstep. In the lead up to the invasion, he constantly reminded the world that Ukraine used to be part of a ‘great’ Russian empire and that they would naturally want to be so again – this of course was a flat-out lie, as was his claim that Russians and Ukrainians are one people and that Ukraine has never been independent in any meaningful way. This sort of bullshit is the standard trope of the far-right – rewriting history and distorting reality to justify subjugation, exploitation and tyranny.
I realize that Russia is a nuclear power, so we can't make things so bad for Putin that he feels he has nothing more to lose. But we must make this war a disaster for him, not just for the sake of Ukraine, but for the entire world. If Putin succeeds, all of his fellow thugs like Trump et al. will be emboldened in the future. But if he fails, they will all be forced to re-learn the fact that brute force and lies are not nearly strong enough to overcome the universal desire for liberty and justice.
Comments