If there was any doubt that Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine has been a monumental failure, the last few weeks removed it. In a stunning counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces were able to recapture some 3000 square kilometers of their territory in just a few days. Russian soldiers, undersupplied and demoralized, panicked and ran like scared rabbits, leaving behind loads of equipment. After six months of warfare, Russia has had at least 25,000 soldiers killed, with another 60,000 wounded. As a comparison, the US had less than 7,000 soldiers killed in Iraq and Afghanistan combined, and those wars went on for years, not months. The economic price is equally severe. While the latest estimates suggest GDP has only contracted by six percent, this is surely understated; Russia stopped reporting its numbers on trade, travel and manufacturing months ago. They have done everything they can to artificially prop up the ruble and when that inevitably fails, their currency will plummet and the economy will be seen to be just as big a mess as the Russian army. There will likely be shortages of staples this winter.
But being a dictator means never being able to admit you fucked up. Putin reacted to this latest humiliating defeat as expected: by denying reality and taking steps that will only make his predicament even worse. After originally telling his people this was not a war, just a “special military operation” that would be over quickly, he announced the conscription of 300,000 fresh bodies. This was greeted with outrage in Russia, with mass demonstrations taking place in several cities. Many of those demonstrators were immediately rounded up and inducted into the military. Hundreds of thousands of draft eligible men fled to neighboring countries. Putin also held sham elections in the four provinces of Ukraine that his army still (mostly) controls. Russia has now annexed these four provinces, which comprise roughly 15 percent of Ukraine’s territory. There is very little chance Ukraine accepts this annexation when they are routing the Russians on the battlefield.
Since the fall of communism, Russia has tried to bluff the world that it was still a great power. Putin apparently deluded himself into believing this was true. The iron law of authoritarianism is that countries ruled by dictators always rot from the inside. Everything looks good from afar until one day the house simply collapses in on itself. The root of the rot is always the same - corruption. Of the world’s largest twenty economies, Russia rates by far the worst on corruption, which is part and parcel of any authoritarian regime. Elites must be bought off to retain their support, and this applies to the military officer class more than anyone else. Russia has officially been spending about 60 billion USD a year on defence, but that number is understated. When you add in research and development and other off-the-book expenses, the amount is over 100 billion USD, or about 7 percent of GDP. For comparison, the US spends about 3.5 percent of GDP on its military.
Much of this money never makes it to the military; it is stolen and looted by officers, middlemen, defence contractors, etc. Russian troops fighting in Ukraine have run out of ammunition, medical supplies and trucks. They have gotten sick from the past-due rations they’ve been given. If you were able to fly over the Black Sea shoreline, you’d see an unbroken line of lovely dachas belonging to the military and political elite, all bought with stolen funds. The Russian Defence Minister, an unbearable toady named Sergei Shoigu, lives in an 18 million dollar mansion. Billions are hiding in offshore bank accounts or being washed through Western companies. Since Putin is a common thief himself, all these criminals have simply taken their cue from him.
Putin’s forced conscription and sham elections won’t help him out of his mess. Untrained and poorly supplied newbies sent to the front will be slaughtered by the experienced and determined Ukrainian forces. Desertions will be rampant. The annexation of the four provinces is simply a pretext for Putin to be able to use nuclear weapons (the Russian constitution requires that nukes can only be used if Russia is attacked). Putin is certainly sufficiently callous and desperate to use tactical nuclear weapons to try to force the Ukrainians to negotiate some sort of face-saving settlement. These small nukes can be used on the battlefield to inflict huge casualties on an opposing army. They could also be used against the civilian population, with devastating results. Obviously, this is a horrible and frightening scenario, but unfortunately, there is a real chance it will happen.
If Putin crosses the nuclear threshold, he will be a dead man walking. China and India will desert him. NATO will retaliate with swift and devastating results, without resorting to nuclear weapons themselves. For example, Putin’s shiny Black Sea fleet of warships will likely find itself at the bottom of the sea in a matter of hours. NATO could also bomb the hell out of the Russian troops occupying Ukraine. Apparently, US President Joe Biden has already made this clear to Putin. If his paper mache army can’t stand up to Ukraine, how will it deal with NATO? Of course, this is an extremely dangerous scenario that could lead to all-out war with Russia, which has some 6000 nuclear warheads. We are standing on a precipice looking right into the abyss.
The way out for both sides is the removal of the lunatic who brought us here. Observers in the West have maintained that Putin is still popular in Russia – he is not. For a people who were able to see through the worst communist propaganda for more than 70 years, Putin’s efforts to spin his failures and blunders are amateurish. Most Russians know what’s really happening with the war. The bought-off elites are turning on him, which is why so many have ‘committed suicide’ or ‘fallen’ to their deaths in the last few months. It’s only a matter of time until Putin has some sort of ‘accident’ himself. The only question is how much damage he does in the meantime.
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