There's an oft-repeated saying (mistakenly attributed to the Chinese) that says "May you live in interesting times." Unfortunately, there seems to be a fine line between "interesting" and batshit crazy, and we have definitely crossed it. Unable to comprehend the simple logic and math of what a trade deficit actually means, Trump has threatened to put a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian exports because we are "ripping off the US." As if that weren't enough, he talked about waging "economic warfare" on Canada until we agree to join the US. There's even Fox News dirtbags calling for a military invasion. Did you ever think you'd hear this kind of talk coming from our supposed best friend?
Point of fact, in geopolitics there are no best friends and no 'special relationships.' There are only common interests and mutual benefits. When these no longer align, alliances and friendship go straight out the window. A country that can't or won't defend itself and its interests is not a sovereign country; it exists by the benevolence of other countries. For the last 80 years, the world has been relatively stable. While the Cold War was costly and highly destructive in many underdeveloped countries, Canadians enjoyed a long period of peace and prosperity. Canada was a part of a grand alliance, NATO, and had a mostly harmonious and beneficial relationship with the US. But this situation looks to be coming to an end.
More semi-fascist psychos are being elected all over the world with each passing month. We are entering uncharted waters in which all of the old assumptions about geopolitics are coming unglued. It is irresponsible of our leaders and us citizens to blithely assume the status quo is still sufficient. Canadians need to understand that we are in a precarious position, and that if we really want Canada to survive, there will be costs and sacrifices.
So what do we do?
For starters, our leaders need to be tougher. When Trump first made his tariff threat, Trudeau immediately sprinted down to Florida to try to smooth things over. At the meeting, Trudeau idiotically agreed to spend a billion dollars flying helicopters along the border. He should have told Trump to shove it and secure his own border if he really thought it was a problem. (Spoiler alert: it isn't.) This pandering didn't work; immediately after the meeting, Trump started yapping about making Canada the 51st state. As everyone should know by now, Trump feeds on weakness. Our next leader, whoever he or she is, has to adopt a much stronger tone and stance. And if Trump puts tariffs on Canada, we need to retaliate with our own tariffs, including hitting the US hard on oil. It will be costly and painful, but this is the price we have to pay. If we allow ourselves to be cowed and pushed around, Trump will only get more aggressive.
A lot of people think the tariffs are a bluff and a negotiating ploy; I don't think they are. US tariffs would badly hurt the Canadian economy. Our stock market could crash by 40 percent and we could lose 1.5 million jobs. We will need a pragmatic government that rolls up its sleeves and figures out how to steer us through this. Instead, we are likely to have an ideologically-driven Conservative government that relies on the same old playbook- tax cuts for corporations and rich people, deregulation, and cutting government services because of "the deficit." What they should do instead is implement a working class tax cut. The tax burden on ordinary Canadians is the biggest impediment we have to growing our economy, and it is the chief factor in growing discontent among working people. Yes, a significant tax cut for millions of Canadians will grow the national debt. Here is my answer to that: who gives a crap. The people whining about the debt are dimbulbs who don't actually understand anything about the government's finances, monetary policy or currency markets. I've explained it before, so I'm not going to do it again here. Suffice to say, stabilizing our economy in the face of Trump's tariffs will be way more important than whatever amount gets added to the national debt.
I doubt Poilievre will do this, because he will just listen to our business elites, who will try to take advantage of the chaos that Trump is causing. They will demand policies that help themselves, and they will sell Canadians out in a nanosecond if it protects their profits and ridiculous salaries. It's already started. Here is one of Canada's foremost economists, David Rosenberg, saying that we shouldn't retaliate against US tariffs with our own because "I'm not sure Canadians will be better off in the end." Even some first year university kid who got a C in Econ 201 can tell you no one wins in a trade war. But how will we be better off doing nothing? Does Rosenberg think Trump will feel sorry for us and remove the tariffs out of the goodness of his heart? This is the level of selfish rationalization and cowardice you can expect from most of our business leaders. Or consider Kevin O'Leary, failed politician and game show host whose business skill is at about the same level as Trump's. If I were in charge, O'Leary would be sitting in jail right now, awaiting his trial for treason - yes, that's the applicable statute for when a private citizen attempts to negotiate a deal with a foreign government without the consent and accreditation of the duly elected Canadian government.
Keep in mind that for the last 40 years, every business leader, economist and free market mouthpiece has told us that tariffs were a horrible and stupid idea and that anyone who supported them was a socialist moron. Now see how quickly they are changing their tune.
There will be more sellouts who, when faced with having to lift a finger, will just cave in the name of whatever chicken shit rationalization they can come up with. The people who do this are not acting out of any care for what's best for you or Canada; they only care about their own self-interest. I fully expect that as this crisis worsens, more and more of our business leaders will start telling us we should join the US. (For anyone who supports this idiocy, joining the US would make us far worse off - poorer, dumber, and unhealthier, with more crime, more pollution, and more drug abuse. Tough call....)
We need to be better prepared for every eventuality. If Canada can't defend itself, it has no choice but to accept demands from a lunatic like Trump. Decades of underfunding have left our military with old equipment prone to operational failures. Canada has been content to skimp on military spending because we believed that the US and the rest of NATO had us covered. Trump has been demanding that all the NATO allies up their military spending. Let's give him what he wants - except we spend the money revamping our forces and our equipment so that it suits our needs. Canada is very difficult to defend militarily because we only have a population of around 40 million people over an area of 4 million square miles. Rather than adhering to the outdated NATO program and just buying more expensive tanks and fighter jets, we should be investing in cutting edge weapon technology like drones and hypersonic missiles. Our forces should pivot to quick strike, flexible movement tactics that can defend a large area with limited soldiers. We really should be taking notes on what the Ukrainians are doing in their war with Russia.
There are likely tough times ahead. The pandemic showed how weak a society we have become, with millions of people whining about every little inconvenience. We need to do a lot better this time.
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